Last updated September 16, 2025
| Rank | Team | Wins | Remaining Games | Win % | Win % Rank | Projected Wins (FPI) | Projected Rank (FPI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Creaser | 5 | 45 | 83.3% | 1 | 28.8 | 1 |
| 2 | Matt McEwan | 4 | 45 | 66.7% | 2 | 28.0 | 2 |
| 2 | Mike Thorne | 4 | 45 | 66.7% | 2 | 27.9 | 3 |
| 2 | Karl Loiseau | 4 | 45 | 66.7% | 2 | 25.7 | 6 |
| 5 | Andrew Moeller | 3 | 45 | 50.0% | 5 | 26.8 | 4 |
| 5 | Andrew Batchelor | 3 | 45 | 50.0% | 5 | 26.6 | 5 |
| 5 | Luke Phelan | 3 | 45 | 50.0% | 5 | 23.6 | 9 |
| 8 | Dan Ellenberger | 2 | 45 | 33.3% | 8 | 24.5 | 7 |
| 8 | Nick Boucher | 2 | 45 | 33.3% | 8 | 23.8 | 8 |
| 8 | Matt Hogel | 2 | 45 | 33.3% | 8 | 23.4 | 10 |
| Team | Wins |
Projected Wins |
Next Opponent |
Win Probability in Next Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | ||||
| Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 9.8 | TEN | 0.62 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 10.7 | LA | 0.62 |
| New England Patriots | 1 | 8.3 | PIT | 0.41 |
| Karl Loiseau | ||||
| Arizona Cardinals | 2 | 9.1 | SF | 0.45 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 2 | 10.3 | PHI | 0.38 |
| Chicago Bears | 0 | 6.3 | DAL | 0.55 |
| Matt McEwan | ||||
| Buffalo Bills | 2 | 12.0 | MIA | 0.86 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 1 | 7.8 | WAS | 0.38 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 1 | 8.2 | NO | 0.75 |
| Mike Thorne | ||||
| Green Bay Packers | 2 | 11.3 | CLE | 0.77 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2 | 10.9 | DEN | 0.59 |
| New York Giants | 0 | 5.7 | KC | 0.28 |
| Andrew Batchelor | ||||
| Denver Broncos | 1 | 9.0 | LAC | 0.41 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 8.6 | HOU | 0.55 |
| Washington Commanders | 1 | 9.0 | LV | 0.62 |
| Andrew Moeller | ||||
| Atlanta Falcons | 1 | 8.5 | CAR | 0.70 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1 | 8.3 | CHI | 0.45 |
| Detroit Lions | 1 | 10.0 | BAL | 0.34 |
| Luke Phelan | ||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2 | 10.7 | NYJ | 0.73 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 | 7.8 | NE | 0.59 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0 | 5.1 | IND | 0.38 |
| Dan Ellenberger | ||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 11.0 | DET | 0.66 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1 | 7.6 | CIN | 0.61 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0 | 5.9 | ATL | 0.30 |
| Matt Hogel | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 10.6 | ARI | 0.55 |
| Houston Texans | 0 | 7.0 | JAX | 0.45 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0 | 5.8 | BUF | 0.14 |
| Nick Boucher | ||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 9.4 | MIN | 0.39 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 5.8 | GB | 0.23 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0 | 8.6 | NYG | 0.72 |
Leverage measured by:
* Circles to the top right are games between people closest to first
place
* Bigger circles indicate games that are more likely to be closely
contested
| Team | Wins |
Draft Spot |
Expected Wins |
Performance vs. Expectation |
Better Choices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| New England Patriots | 1 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt McEwan | |||||
| Buffalo Bills | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 1 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 1 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Thorne | |||||
| Green Bay Packers | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| New York Giants | 0 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Karl Loiseau | |||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chicago Bears | 0 | 21 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| Andrew Moeller | |||||
| Detroit Lions | 1 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 1 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Batchelor | |||||
| Denver Broncos | 1 | 9 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| Washington Commanders | 1 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Luke Phelan | |||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 | 10 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dan Ellenberger | |||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Boucher | |||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 19 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Hogel | |||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston Texans | 0 | 15 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 |